[LTER-luq] Here comes another one . . . This one more unpredictable in both track and speed

[Lodge, Deborah J -FS]

Hi Jess et al.

Reading the National Hurricane Center Discussion on Erika, there is a lot of disagreement/divergence in the track of Erika, which is also tied to the disagreement/divergence in the strength forecasts between different models, and the divergence starts at 48 hrs, i.e, Thursday morning, just as it approaches Puerto Rico. I’ve copied the salient parts from the NHC Discussion below, but the bottom line is, don’t trust this storm and don’t put too much faith in the projected storm tracks – this is a wild-card.

Due to the large spread in the guidance, the intensity
forecast at days 3-5 is of even lower confidence than usual.

The initial motion estimate of 275/17 is based largely on
continuity, given the difficulty locating the center with infrared
imagery. The track guidance is in good agreement through 36 hours,
as Erika should be steered westward to west-northwestward south of
the subtropical ridge. At 48 hours and beyond, there are two
distinct camps of track guidance. The UKMET, HWRF, and GFDL
show a deeper system that moves northwestward, while the GFS, ECMWF,
and GEFS ensemble mean show a weaker cyclone and a more west-
northwestward motion. The NHC forecast has been nudged a bit
to the right this cycle and remains close to the ECMWF and GEFS
ensemble mean. This track is to the right of the GFS but well left
of the TVCA multi-model consensus. Given the divergence in the
guidance, confidence in the track forecast late in the period is
low.

Based on the new forecast, Tropical Storm Watches have been issued
for portions of the Lesser Antilles.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 14.6N  49.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  25/1800Z 15.2N  51.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  26/0600Z 16.0N  54.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  26/1800Z 16.9N  57.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  27/0600Z 17.6N  61.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  28/0600Z 19.3N  66.2W   60 KT  70 MPH


[Forest Service Shield]

D. Jean Lodge, PhD
Botanist (Mycologist)

Forest Service
Center for Forest Mycology Research, Forest Products Laboratory, stationed in Puerto Rico

p: 787-889-7445
dlodge at fs.fed.us<mailto:dlodge at fs.fed.us>

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From: luq [mailto:luq-bounces at lists.lternet.edu] On Behalf Of Jess Zimmerman
Sent: Tuesday, August 25, 2015 7:50 AM
To: LUQ-LTER
Subject: [LTER-luq] Here comes another one . . .

It is the time of year when God's Arcade Game reaches its peak.  Tropical Storm Erika is the latest ball of fury headed in our direction. She is predicted to brush past our north shore as a strong tropical storm on Friday.  I will let you know if the prediction becomes more dire.

The remnants of Danny are mostly passing to our south, providing little rain so far.

jess


Jess K. Zimmerman
Professor
Lead PI, Luquillo LTER Program
Department Environmental Sciences
University of Puerto Rico - Rio Piedras
Rio Piedras, Puerto Rico

Direct Office Line: 787-350-0350
Or: 787-764-0000 ext. 1-XXXX-# where XXXX is:
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   El Verde Field Station: 4381
Mobile: 787-380-3311
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