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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Hi Jess et al.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Reading the National Hurricane Center Discussion on Erika, there is a lot of disagreement/divergence in the track of Erika, which is also tied to the disagreement/divergence
in the strength forecasts between different models, and the divergence starts at 48 hrs, i.e, Thursday morning, just as it approaches Puerto Rico. I’ve copied the salient parts from the NHC Discussion below, but the bottom line is, don’t trust this storm and
don’t put too much faith in the projected storm tracks – this is a wild-card.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">Due to the large spread in the guidance, the intensity<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">forecast at days 3-5 is of even lower confidence than usual.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New""><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">The initial motion estimate of 275/17 is based largely on<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">continuity, given the difficulty locating the center with infrared<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">imagery. The track guidance is in good agreement through 36 hours,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">as Erika should be steered westward to west-northwestward south of<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">the subtropical ridge. At 48 hours and beyond, there are two<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">distinct camps of track guidance. The UKMET, HWRF, and GFDL<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">show a deeper system that moves northwestward, while the GFS, ECMWF,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">and GEFS ensemble mean show a weaker cyclone and a more west-<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">northwestward motion. The NHC forecast has been nudged a bit<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">to the right this cycle and remains close to the ECMWF and GEFS<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">ensemble mean. This track is to the right of the GFS but well left<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">of the TVCA multi-model consensus. Given the divergence in the<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">guidance, confidence in the track forecast late in the period is<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">low.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New""><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">Based on the new forecast, Tropical Storm Watches have been issued<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">for portions of the Lesser Antilles.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New""><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New""><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">INIT 25/0900Z 14.6N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">12H 25/1800Z 15.2N 51.9W 45 KT 50 MPH<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">24H 26/0600Z 16.0N 54.8W 50 KT 60 MPH<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">36H 26/1800Z 16.9N 57.9W 55 KT 65 MPH<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">48H 27/0600Z 17.6N 61.0W 60 KT 70 MPH<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">72H 28/0600Z 19.3N 66.2W 60 KT 70 MPH<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:#1F497D"><img width="69" height="65" id="Picture_x0020_1" src="cid:image001.png@01D0DF0F.264A2040" alt="Forest Service Shield"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black">D. Jean Lodge, PhD
<br>
Botanist (Mycologist)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black">Forest Service
<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#28742E">Center for Forest Mycology Research, Forest Products Laboratory, stationed in Puerto Rico<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black">p: 787-889-7445
<br>
<a href="mailto:dlodge@fs.fed.us"><span style="color:blue">dlodge@fs.fed.us</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black">Sabana Field Research Station, Rt 988 int. Rt. 983, Bo. Sabana (mail address PO Box 1377)
<br>
Luquillo, PR 00773<br>
<a href="http://www.fs.fed.us/"><span style="color:blue">www.fs.fed.us</span></a>
<br>
</span><a href="http://usda.gov/"><span style="font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:blue;text-decoration:none"><img border="0" width="20" height="14" id="Picture_x0020_2" src="cid:image002.png@01D0DF0F.264A2040" alt="USDA Logo"></span></a><a href="https://twitter.com/forestservice"><span style="font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:blue;text-decoration:none"><img border="0" width="19" height="16" id="Picture_x0020_3" src="cid:image003.png@01D0DF0F.264A2040" alt="Forest Service Twitter"></span></a><a href="http://facebook.com/USDA"><span style="font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:blue;text-decoration:none"><img border="0" width="16" height="16" id="Picture_x0020_4" src="cid:image004.png@01D0DF0F.264A2040" alt="USDA Facebook"></span></a><span style="font-size:8.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><b><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#28742E">Caring for the land and serving people<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"">From:</span></b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif""> luq [mailto:luq-bounces@lists.lternet.edu]
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Jess Zimmerman<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, August 25, 2015 7:50 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> LUQ-LTER<br>
<b>Subject:</b> [LTER-luq] Here comes another one . . .<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">It is the time of year when God's Arcade Game reaches its peak. Tropical Storm Erika is the latest ball of fury headed in our direction. She is predicted to brush past our north shore as a strong tropical storm on Friday. I will let you
know if the prediction becomes more dire.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">The remnants of Danny are mostly passing to our south, providing little rain so far.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">jess<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><br clear="all">
<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Jess K. Zimmerman<br>
Professor<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Lead PI, Luquillo LTER Program<br>
Department Environmental Sciences<br>
University of Puerto Rico - Rio Piedras<br>
Rio Piedras, Puerto Rico<br>
<br>
Direct Office Line: 787-350-0350<br>
Or: 787-764-0000 ext. 1-XXXX-# where XXXX is:<br>
LTER Program Office: 2867<br>
El Verde Field Station: 4381<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Mobile: 787-380-3311<o:p></o:p></p>
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