[LTER-luq] It it isn't one thing . . .

[djlodge at caribe.net]

Hi all,

The models are now consistently predicting a pressure ridge to form that will steer Tropical Storm (or wave) Danny just to the south of Puerto Rico. Weather predictions 
for Luquillo for Monday through Thursday next week on Weather Underground are only for about 4-6 cm. That's really good for us on water rationing, but it really won't 
be enough to break the drought - the water deficit is much greater than that. There are some more tropical waves coming, however, so have to see what happens to 
them.  

The El Niño is expected to strengthen late Fall through early winter, which I assume is November through February. Thus, we may get a slight lull in the drought with 
some rains for the next six to ten weeks, and then really dry for the following 4 months.

We had this pattern during the last El Niño - dry during the rainy season and rain during the dry season. Expect more of same.

Jean
>------- Original Message -------
>From    : Thompson, Jill[mailto:jiom at ceh.ac.uk]
>Sent    : 8/20/2015 1:56:05 AM
>To      : jesskz at ites.upr.edu; luq at lternet.edu
>Cc      : 
>Subject : RE: Re: [LTER-luq] It it isn't one thing . . .
>
 >Hi all,

Don't want Danny to hit as would like post drought LFDP census and longer time since Georges.
But
GREAT - new scenarios to follow.  Hurricanes after drought will mean less green litter deposition, less input to streams, likely less damage to trees as they are carrying 
fewer leaves, but maybe more depending upon how much stress the drought has caused, different seedling dynamics.

Have we a plan of action?

When can we start the next LFDP census?

Best wishes to all.

Jill



>-----Original Message-----
>From: luq [ mailto:luq-bounces at lists.lternet.edu]  On Behalf Of Jess Zimmerman
>Sent: 19 August 2015 16:00
>To: LUQ-LTER <luq at lternet.edu>
>Subject: [LTER-luq] It it isn't one thing . . .
>
>Luquettes,
>
>We are watching Tropical Storm Danny in the Atlantic, which could quickly
>switch our mode from drought watch to watch the trees fly around.  Or, no
>more drought.  The NHC graphical forecast is somewhat ominous in appearance
>but the individual model runs (below) suggest the thing could head north of the
>island. The details explaining this difference in outlook can be found in the
>Discussion on the NHC website.
>
>We will keep you posted on any important changes in Danny's forecast
>trajectory.
>
>jess
>
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>
>Jess K. Zimmerman
>Professor
>Lead PI, Luquillo LTER Program
>Department Environmental Sciences
>University of Puerto Rico - Rio Piedras
>Rio Piedras, Puerto Rico
>
>Direct Office Line: 787-350-0350
>Or: 787-764-0000 ext. 1-XXXX-# where XXXX is:
>   LTER Program Office: 2867
>   El Verde Field Station: 4381
>
>Mobile: 787-380-3311
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