<html xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><head><META HTTP-EQUIV="Content-Type" CONTENT="text/html; charset=us-ascii"><meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 15 (filtered medium)"><style><!--
/* Font Definitions */
@font-face
{font-family:"Cambria Math";
panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Calibri;
panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Consolas;
panose-1:2 11 6 9 2 2 4 3 2 4;}
/* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;
color:black;}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:blue;
text-decoration:underline;}
a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:purple;
text-decoration:underline;}
pre
{mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-link:"HTML Preformatted Char";
margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New";
color:black;}
span.HTMLPreformattedChar
{mso-style-name:"HTML Preformatted Char";
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-link:"HTML Preformatted";
font-family:"Consolas",serif;
color:black;}
span.EmailStyle19
{mso-style-type:personal-reply;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;
color:#1F497D;}
.MsoChpDefault
{mso-style-type:export-only;
font-size:10.0pt;}
@page WordSection1
{size:8.5in 11.0in;
margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in;}
div.WordSection1
{page:WordSection1;}
--></style><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapedefaults v:ext="edit" spidmax="1026" />
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapelayout v:ext="edit">
<o:idmap v:ext="edit" data="1" />
</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body bgcolor=white lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'>Need to plot dt/dz for temperature from the CTD data down the water column before and after the flood year. This will give us a quick look at water column stability through time.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'>JP<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><a name="_MailEndCompose"><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></a></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:windowtext'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:windowtext'> mcm-pi [mailto:mcm-pi-bounces@lists.lternet.edu] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Peter Doran<br><b>Sent:</b> Monday, August 17, 2015 7:10 PM<br><b>To:</b> mcm-pi@lists.lternet.edu<br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [LTER-mcm-pi] wait... there IS more variability in streamflow since 2002!<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>It was the conductivity I was remembering. This is a lake level corrected plot for ELB conductivity. Note the variation post flood year. We can try and update this for Boulder as well.<br><br>-Peter<br><br><o:p></o:p></p><pre>Peter Doran, Professor and John Franks Chair<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Department of Geology and Geophysics<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>E235 Howe Russell Geosciences Complex<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Louisiana State University<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA 70803<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Ph: 225-578-3955<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Fx: 225-578-2302<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><a href="http://geology.lsu.edu/People/Faculty/item73533.html">http://geology.lsu.edu/People/Faculty/item73533.html</a><o:p></o:p></pre><p class=MsoNormal><br>On 8/17/15 6:16 AM, Peter Doran wrote: <o:p></o:p></p><blockquote style='margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><pre>I seem to recall a difference in the pre and post flood year variability in upper lake temperatures in the analysis we did a few years ago as well. I will check.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Andrew, we can include any met variability analysis to the group in our presentation of the summaries in Boulder. Mike has now created a slot for met which was missing. I'll talk to Maciek when he's in BR this week<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>-Peter <o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><blockquote style='margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><pre>On Aug 16, 2015, at 6:58 PM, Andrew Fountain <a href="mailto:andrew@pdx.edu"><andrew@pdx.edu></a> wrote:<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Mike,<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Is the variance higher because the flow is higher after the flood year? Did you do a coefficient of variation analysis?<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Maciek is working on air temp and soil temp.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Andrew<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>On Sun, Aug 16, 2015 at 1:55 PM, Michael Gooseff <<a href="mailto:michael.gooseff@colorado.edu">michael.gooseff@colorado.edu</a><a href="mailto:michael.gooseff@colorado.edu"><mailto:michael.gooseff@colorado.edu></a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Hi all, (greetings from Toolik)<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>I wanted to follow up on a conversation we had a few months ago about the variability in the MDVs since 2002. Recall that Chris shared with us a spreadsheet of annual flow volumes from the Fryxell basin streams, and that the analyses suggested that variance had gone down in the 2003-2013 period (compared to 1990-2001). My recollection is that this sort of took the wind out of our sails on that discussion.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>I revisited these analyses in the past week in trying to get some writing and a figure together for the Bioscience paper that Andrew is leading and Chris and I revised the analyses -<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre> 1. We fixed an error we found in the calculation of % change of variance from pre- to post-flood.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre> 2. We took out the 2001-02 flood year (to look at ‘before’ and ‘after’, we argue that we shouldn’t lump the flood year in either if we postulate that it is a turning point) —> doing these 2 steps alone resulted in an increase of variance of 185% in the post-flood vs pre-flood period…<o:p></o:p></pre><pre> 3. However, we had several seasons in each period of poor or no flow estimates because of technical problems with gauges or controls (3 in the pre-flood period (~4%), 7 in the post-flood period (~7%)). Chris came up with some nice correlations to fill in these gaps (no relationship has an R2 < 0.70), and the result is an increase in variance of 48% in the post-flood period vs. the pre-flood period. This is (I think) our best analysis of the flow records and indicates increased variance in the recent decade. (most updated figure inserted below with snip of text)<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>So, I’d like to suggest that we revisit the notion that our system is becoming more variable as we emerge from the cooling trend as a potential theme for the renewal. What are some of the other ecosystem parameters we might evaluate for similar changes?<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>—> JP showed us UW PAR data last week that looks like it could be more variable, but will be hard to evaluate with the gaps<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>—> Soil or Air temperature analyses?<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>—> Soil moisture analyses from a long-term plot?<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>—> chl-a in lake photic zone?<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>If we can demonstrate change in ecosystem temporal trends (the synthesis paper mega plot) and increased variance of some drivers, I think we have an easy sell on the motivation for the proposal…<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Talk to you all on Thursday.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Cheers<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>-Mike<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Snip of text: [in the pre-flood period] mean annual streamflow was 0.85 x 106 m3 with a standard deviation of 0.93 x 106 m3 and a variance over this period of 0.86 x 109 m3. The highest annual flows on record were observed in the 2001-02 flow season (total streamflow over 5 x 106 m3). Since this ‘flood year’, mean annual discharge has increased (2003-2013; 1.59 x 106 m3), as has the standard deviation (1.13 x 106 m3) and the variance (1.28 x 109 m3, an increase of 49%).<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>[<a href="cid:A5029176-02CE-4C56-8D60-60E7C7B196AD">cid:A5029176-02CE-4C56-8D60-60E7C7B196AD</a>]<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Michael Gooseff, Associate Professor<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>University of Colorado<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Boulder, CO 80309-0450<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>email: <a href="mailto:michael.gooseff@colorado.edu">michael.gooseff@colorado.edu</a><a href="mailto:michael.gooseff@colorado.edu"><mailto:michael.gooseff@colorado.edu></a><o:p></o:p></pre><pre>web: <a href="http://goosefflab.weebly.com">http://goosefflab.weebly.com</a><a href="http://goosefflab.weebly.com/"><http://goosefflab.weebly.com/></a><o:p></o:p></pre><pre>phone: 303.735.5333<a href="tel:303.735.5333"><tel:303.735.5333></a><o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>_______________________________________________<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Long Term Ecological Research Network<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>mcm-pi mailing list<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><a href="mailto:mcm-pi@lternet.edu">mcm-pi@lternet.edu</a><a href="mailto:mcm-pi@lternet.edu"><mailto:mcm-pi@lternet.edu></a><o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>--<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Andrew G. Fountain<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Department of Geology<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Department of Geography<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Address: FedEx/Shipping Address:<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>------------------------ --------------------------<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Department of Geology Department of Geology<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Portland State University 17 Cramer Hall<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Portland, OR 97207-0751 Portland State University<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>USA 1721 SW Broadway<o:p></o:p></pre><pre> Portland, OR 97201<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Email: <a href="mailto:andrew@pdx.edu">andrew@pdx.edu</a><a href="mailto:andrew@pdx.edu"><mailto:andrew@pdx.edu></a> USA<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><a href="http://www.glaciers.pdx.edu">http://www.glaciers.pdx.edu</a><a href="http://www.glaciers.pdx.edu/"><http://www.glaciers.pdx.edu/></a><o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Phone: 503-725-3386<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Fax: 503-725-3025<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><A5029176-02CE-4C56-8D60-60E7C7B196AD.png><o:p></o:p></pre><pre>_______________________________________________<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Long Term Ecological Research Network<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>mcm-pi mailing list<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><a href="mailto:mcm-pi@lternet.edu">mcm-pi@lternet.edu</a><o:p></o:p></pre></blockquote><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>_______________________________________________<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Long Term Ecological Research Network<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>mcm-pi mailing list<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><a href="mailto:mcm-pi@lternet.edu">mcm-pi@lternet.edu</a><o:p></o:p></pre></blockquote></div></body></html>