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<div>Hi Jeb,</div>
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<div>Attached is a short ppt with figures I showed at the 2013 MCM science mtg in Boulder with a title slide that has some explanation. Bottom line (analyzed through maybe 2011 at the time) is that high flows on individual streams (e.g., the 90th percentile
for a given season) are higher than in the past. That makes sense if flows are increasing overall. BUT, we haven’t looked at the frequency of flows in each season (I.e., an analysis of the flow magnitudes in a season) to see if those are changing much. That
might be fairly easy. Let me pose that analysis to Adam and Chris and see what happens…</div>
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<div>Cheers</div>
<div>-Mike</div>
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<span style="font-weight:bold">From: </span>John Barrett<br>
<span style="font-weight:bold">Date: </span>Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 2:56 PM<br>
<span style="font-weight:bold">To: </span>Michael Gooseff<br>
<span style="font-weight:bold">Cc: </span>"<a href="mailto:mcm-pi@lternet.edu">mcm-pi@lternet.edu</a>", Berry Lyons<br>
<span style="font-weight:bold">Subject: </span>Re: [LTER-mcm-pi] wait... there IS more variability in streamflow since 2002!<br>
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<p dir="ltr">OK, so as a total block of time. What about the variance within a flow year. Has that changed over time too? Basically the distinction is between seasonal and inferannual variability.</p>
<div class="gmail_quote">On Aug 16, 2015 6:17 PM, "Michael Gooseff" <<a href="mailto:michael.gooseff@colorado.edu">michael.gooseff@colorado.edu</a>> wrote:<br type="attribution">
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<div>It’s the annual variance of the total flows. So, we grouped the total annual flow volumes from 1990-2001 and from 2003-2013 then calculated variance on both groups. </div>
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<div>Mike</div>
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<span style="font-weight:bold">From: </span>John Barrett<br>
<span style="font-weight:bold">Date: </span>Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 2:08 PM<br>
<span style="font-weight:bold">To: </span>Michael Gooseff<br>
<span style="font-weight:bold">Cc: </span>Berry Lyons, "<a href="mailto:mcm-pi@lternet.edu" target="_blank">mcm-pi@lternet.edu</a>"<br>
<span style="font-weight:bold">Subject: </span>Re: [LTER-mcm-pi] wait... there IS more variability in streamflow since 2002!<br>
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<p dir="ltr">Really cool mike. That's certainly the general impression.<br>
Is the increase in variance a within year phenomena or interannual?</p>
<div class="gmail_quote">On Aug 16, 2015 4:56 PM, "Michael Gooseff" <<a href="mailto:michael.gooseff@colorado.edu" target="_blank">michael.gooseff@colorado.edu</a>> wrote:<br type="attribution">
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<div style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-size:14px;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif">Hi all, (greetings from Toolik)</div>
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<div style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-size:14px;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif">I wanted to follow up on a conversation we had a few months ago about the variability in the MDVs since 2002. Recall that Chris shared with us a spreadsheet of annual flow volumes
from the Fryxell basin streams, and that the analyses suggested that <i>variance had gone down in the 2003-2013 period (compared to 1990-2001)</i>. My recollection is that this sort of took the wind out of our sails on that discussion.</div>
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<div style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-size:14px;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif">I revisited these analyses in the past week in trying to get some writing and a figure together for the Bioscience paper that Andrew is leading and Chris and I revised the analyses
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<li style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,sans-serif;font-size:14px">We fixed an error we found in the calculation of % change of variance from pre- to post-flood.</li><li><font face="Calibri,sans-serif">We took out the 2001-02 flood year (to look at ‘before’ and ‘after’, we argue that we shouldn’t lump the flood year in either if we postulate that it is a turning point) —>
</font><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><i>doing these 2 steps alone resulted in an
<u>increase</u> of variance of 185% in the post-flood vs pre-flood period</i></span><font face="Calibri,sans-serif"><i>…</i></font></li><li style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,sans-serif;font-size:14px"><u>However</u>, we had several seasons in each period of poor or no flow estimates because of technical problems with gauges or controls (3 in the pre-flood period (~4%), 7 in the post-flood
period (~7%)). Chris came up with some nice correlations to fill in these gaps (no relationship has an R2 < 0.70), and
<i><b>the result is an increase in variance of 48% in the post-flood period vs. the pre-flood period</b></i>. This is (I think) our best analysis of the flow records and indicates increased variance in the recent decade. (most updated figure inserted below
with snip of text)</li></ol>
<div style="font-size:14px">So, <font color="#ff0000"><b>I’d like to suggest that we revisit the notion that our system is becoming more variable as we emerge from the cooling trend as a potential theme for the renewal</b></font>. What are some of the other
ecosystem parameters we might evaluate for similar changes? </div>
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<div style="font-size:14px">—> JP showed us UW PAR data last week that looks like it could be more variable, but will be hard to evaluate with the gaps </div>
<div style="font-size:14px">—> Soil or Air temperature analyses?</div>
<div style="font-size:14px">—> Soil moisture analyses from a long-term plot?</div>
<div style="font-size:14px">—> chl-a in lake photic zone?</div>
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<div style="font-size:14px">If we can demonstrate change in ecosystem temporal trends (the synthesis paper mega plot) and increased variance of some drivers, I think we have an easy sell on the motivation for the proposal…</div>
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<div style="font-size:14px">Talk to you all on Thursday.</div>
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<div style="font-size:14px">Cheers</div>
<div style="font-size:14px">-Mike</div>
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<div><span style="font-size:16px"><b>Snip of text:</b> [in the pre-flood period] </span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri">mean annual streamflow was 0.85 x 10</span><sup style="font-size:14px;font-family:Calibri">6</sup><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri">
m</span><sup style="font-size:14px;font-family:Calibri">3</sup><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri"> with a standard deviation of 0.93 x 10</span><sup style="font-size:14px;font-family:Calibri">6</sup><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri">
m</span><sup style="font-size:14px;font-family:Calibri">3</sup><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri"> and a variance over this period of 0.86 x 10</span><sup style="font-size:14px;font-family:Calibri">9</sup><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri">
m</span><sup style="font-size:14px;font-family:Calibri">3</sup><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri">.</span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri">
</span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri">The highest annual flows on record were observed in the 2001-02 flow season (total streamflow over 5 x 10</span><sup style="font-size:14px;font-family:Calibri">6</sup><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri">
m</span><sup style="font-size:14px;font-family:Calibri">3</sup><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri">).</span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri">
</span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri">Since this ‘flood year’, mean annual discharge has increased (2003-2013; 1.59 x 10</span><sup style="font-size:14px;font-family:Calibri">6</sup><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri"> m</span><sup style="font-size:14px;font-family:Calibri">3</sup><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri">),
as has the standard deviation (1.13 x 10</span><sup style="font-size:14px;font-family:Calibri">6</sup><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri"> m</span><sup style="font-size:14px;font-family:Calibri">3</sup><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri">)
and the variance (1.28 x 10</span><sup style="font-size:14px;font-family:Calibri">9</sup><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri"> m</span><sup style="font-size:14px;font-family:Calibri">3</sup><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri">, an
increase of 49%).</span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:Calibri"> </span></div>
<div style="font-size:14px"><img src="cid:A5029176-02CE-4C56-8D60-60E7C7B196AD" type="image/png" width="430.799988" height="347.399994"></div>
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<div style="font-size:14px">-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-</div>
<div style="font-size:14px">Michael Gooseff, Associate Professor</div>
<div style="font-size:14px">Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research</div>
<div style="font-size:14px">Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering</div>
<div style="font-size:14px">University of Colorado</div>
<div style="font-size:14px">Boulder, CO 80309-0450</div>
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<div style="font-size:14px">email: <a href="mailto:michael.gooseff@colorado.edu" target="_blank">michael.gooseff@colorado.edu</a></div>
<div style="font-size:14px">web: <a href="http://goosefflab.weebly.com/" target="_blank">http://goosefflab.weebly.com</a> </div>
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phone: <a href="tel:303.735.5333" value="+13037355333" target="_blank">303.735.5333</a></div>
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